Same Flop Twice in a Row – Common Impossibilities With Millions of Hands
Game just ended and the flop to come next. Go! You get a strange sense of deja vu. The flop is the same as the last flop. These things are random. How can it happen again? Something must be present. But really, these things happen so often that it should not even take notice.
Miscalculation what is the probability of a certain failure twice? First, simply ignore the order form and all possible combinations flop. The order of the cards does not interest us, because all letters, both failed. There are combinations of 3 22 100 is a card game 52nd the possibility of a certain combination is 1 to 22100th while the opportunity to do so twice in a row is 22 100 * 21 100, 1 500 million. The volume of online gaming, which is a rare event given. Unless an error in the calculation. An honest mistake that many people can not be seen immediately.
The question was removed as a “lucky to get twice as a failure,” which in reality very different from “a failure is the same as before,” he decided. There is no failure in particular in the calculation that you want is to make a failure. Therefore, to reproduce a particular failure, only has a 1 in 22 100 possibilities. This still seems rare while 1 in 22 100 chance seems unlikely, however, is never in the category of rare events. In the hands of the bricks and mortar world does not deal so quickly, but in an online world, a player only has to press to stop for 50 hands, even on a table. A modest amateur putting in just 10 hours a week at last about 2,000 hands in a month. After a year we have launched more than 24,000 hands. It is expected that a player must have seen this flop case, at least twice every year. Now consider a player a little more committed to two hours a day, play four tables at once. During the falling rate of 50 hands per table in each hand, receiving over 100 thousand hands per year. You can expect to see a flop, about 5 times twice a year. It is actually more likely to a multiplayer table. You look at any reasonable duplex in one of their tables for a game. This means that for a table of four players, each flop, not only are 1 in 22,100, but a 3 in 22 100 chance that the other games. In addition, players are on the flop in one of these tables as well, which means that now 7 in 22 100 possibilities. Thus, in the year, expect the multi-player table to see the flop, doubling approximately 35 times, almost once a week.
Too often, even to notice although the numbers of an individual player can do to have a double and a comment on her double loss. This does not mean that someone else will notice, however. As mentioned above, and the player is modest enough not to do it too often. Consider also that the most popular poker rooms online players could easily reach 20,000. With this volume of players, even if you only play one table, the flop is two times happen to someone about 50 times per hour, so that almost every minute. While these sets of volumes, even the impossible is common. Flops instead of having the same cards flop, where the sequence of cards is also identical. Two failures with the same number of cards in the same order you will surely get a comment from a reader. Is carried out with the condition, there are still only 132k as different as possible flops. So back to 20k players playing 50 hands per hour, which is approximately 8 times per hour in passing.
An even more unlikely is a player who has the same hole cards and the flop is dealt two consecutive times. This has to produce only a chance of 1 in 26 million. For a single player which is really rare. Although again, with a million hands per hour online play that rarity occurs about once a day.
The final lesson is that seemingly rare events happen very often, given the number of active players. This information can be used to fears that the system is a scam or a significant deficiency is overcome. That does not mean it’s not really that rare events, only on rare occasions. For those who praise, we must first do a quick calculation to not celebrate the day.