Last week, which have favored the bias / long shot to show that the performance decreases as the price. That is, punters tend to make the odds of winning favorites and assess the chances of winning horses to underestimate expensive.

Demonstrate what is more than a theory, now let to ensure the profitability of the leading jockeys, trainers and bulls.

Consider first the leading jockey brad rawiller victoria. In the last five years ago, when I was in all its media, it would be about 8% of sales (tab prices) have been lost. But if you take a closer look at your numbers, take a typical favorite / longshot trend is clear. Brad rawiller  the profitability of the price range  less than $ 2.50 0% of sales  $ 2.60 to $ 8 res -3%  $ 8.10 to $ 16 -15% pot  bottle $ 16.01 and -45% now we want to see craig newitt, finished second in the jockey premiership. &Nbsp;the profitability of the price range  under $ 2.50 -7% of sales  $ 2.60 to $ 8 -17% pot  $ 8.10 to $ 16 -48% pot  bottle $ 16.01 -60% and ok, coach discusses the two most important to see if the bias favorite / longshot is also there.

Lee freedman  the profitability of the price range  under $ 2.50 2% of sales  $ 2.60 to $ 8 -14% pot  $ 8.10 to $ 16 -32% pot  $ 16.01 and over -47% pot david hayes  the profitability of the price range  low $ 2.50 -20% of sales  $ 2.60 to $ 8 -30% pot  $ 8.10 to $ 16 -28% pot  $ 16.01 pot and -45% and if you need further proof, let us consider the results when you must follow our first two bulls:  encosta de lago  the profitability of the price range  low $ 2.50 -13% of sales  $ 2.60 to $ 8 -24% pot  $ 8.10 to $ 16 -29% pot  $ 16.01 and over -43% pot  the profitability of the price range  less than $ 2.50 -10% of sales  $ 2.60 to $ 8 -22% pot  $ 8.10 to $ 16 -28% pot  $ 16.01 pot -43% and therefore all the previous example, if there was a rider, trainer and father, was a clear demonstration that the performance drops by rising prices.

As climate, you must be wondering what this means for your own paris? I’m pretty sure this is the case, and maintaining adequate records, you can answer this question definitively. Bias favorite / longshot been for many years in racing, is paris, sports and financial markets and not go away anytime soon. To use it to your advantage, focusing on the horses of the shorter prices and results should improve immediately.

What do you think offers greater long-term value? Bet on horses in the short or long shots? Many gamblers are surprised to learn they have to do better by promoting short prices horses and would not be in the greatest obstacles. This has been demonstrated for many years both in australia and abroad, it is highly unlikely favorite bias. The basic principle is the distortion performance decreases as the price. Or in other words, gamblers tend to make the odds of winning favorites and assess the chances of winning horses to underestimate expensive. For example, priced at $ 3.00 favorite is probably very close to their “real possibility”.

Is however a price of 100 dollars in the foreign field, probably completely “under the symbol”. No race day passes without a number by long shots as the “value”. That may be true for individual horses in the long run, they are a small edge against you to focus your attention on short-competitive prices. Although there are a number of factors contributing to the polarization of favorite long shot, no one is sure why he was there to say. Some analysts put at risk for behavior and the tendency of many people who have great benefits for a relatively light. Others say that most people are not easily differentiated in a position between the probability of small and very small, and therefore, we have (wrongly) that the two are the same price.

Not only is the favorite longshot bias occur in the horse racing industry, but also in sport in paris. Analysis of football in british bookmaker william hill, the odds of paris from 2000 to 2007 showed that if he had supported the team only $ 1.50 or less, would have lost only 5% of sales. Backing all favorites have been a loss of 12% of revenues, while supporting all the oppressed in the same period of 7 years has led to a loss of revenue by 16%.

So how can you as a punter this bias highly unlikely favorite use to improve their performance? Consider trying to concentrate on favored horses, instead of trying to save these longshot winners elusive. Next week we take a look at important riders, coaches and parents to show what we mean.